Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina: The Candidates scramble
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I am happy to see the race become a race again. Most of us wrote off McCain last summer and he's back! Romney came on strong for a while. Then Huck emerged from the shadows (was he, with his sidekick Chuck Norris, and his sometimes amazing performances on The Colbert Report just a flash...a mime, a momentary blip. Soon enough, Senators Biden and Dodd dropped out. And then, Obama gave Senator Clinton a serious ass-whuppin in Iowa, McCain surged in New Hampshire, and Clinton came back and bloodied Obama's nose. Edwards just can't seem to make any headway, but if you're a solid third, you get to live another day. The one-time front-runner Giuliani seriously needs a win (and things have to be grim around the home office with senior staff was placed on payroll hiatus). I always expected Giuliani would do something a little crazy, but instead he has just faded away. There is only so long you can milk being the Mayor of 9/11. Fred Thompson, on the surface is just the kind of folksy guy (remember, I said surface) that could mount a surge from the base, from Larry Lunchbucket, and even, I once thought, from Independents and disaffected Democrats. He jumped into the race, mystifyingly late, with a skeletal organization, and ended up an also-ran. [ed. note: that also means no more Jeri Kehn roundups on All This Is That, 'though we're overdue for one].
It feels like the race has narrowed to Huckabee, McCain, and Romney on the G.O.P. side, and Obama , Clinton, and Edwards for the Dems.
We have one race tomorrow, and two others very soon (Nevada comes down on Saturday). The Republican candidates hope to milk the frustration in the struggling and dejected blue-collar state of Michigan. The Dems (the front runners anyhow) have decided to quit playing the race card, since it appears to be losing votes for both Barack and Hillary.
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New national polls show Senator John McCain leading the Republicans after his startling comeback in last week's New Hampshire primary. And let's face it: Mitt Romney is fighting to save his campaign in Michigan, where he was born, and where his father was governor. Losing Michigan will be about six more nails in the coffin.
Senator Clinton seems to still be on top of the Dems nationally, leading Senator Obama 42 to 27 percent, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll (which seems so wrong!). However, another survey by ABC News and The Washington Post shows a far tighter margin...42 to 37 percent, just barely outside the range of the statistical margin of error.
A national poll shows McCain with a national lead of 33 percent to 18 percent over Ex-Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucus contest. Michigan is a close race between the Huck, McCain, and Romney, with Romney having a slight edge right now.