This seems narrower than most tallies I've seen, Jack. Does it include the 9 Iowa delegates that migrated to Obama from Clinton and Edwards over the weekend? Is that a HRC Caucus bashing backlash that we can expect to see more of? In any event, your figures include Supers which have moved for Obama pretty steadily over the last month. With MI & FLA re-do(s) all but DOA it's impossible to see how she wins this thing unless the Jeremiah deal proves to have really long legs.
I'd bet that at the end of the primary season, Obama will have a lead of 150+ pledged delegates and as Pelosi says, that will have been all she wrote.
It is a narrow tally, but I believe the race is that narrow (and you're right, he did pick up votes this weekend not reflected here).
Yeah Mich. and FLA look to be no-ops.
I agree she can't win this thing, in the primaries (and especially not in the caucuses as you often point out). But he can't win it either--a point Obama supporters rarely mention.
I'm telling you, 'though, I watched the '72 convention almost gavel to gavel, fueled by French Road and The Green Monster. . .and you have no idea what these political operatives can do when they are in the trenches. When the pollsters are working the crowd, and the various factions--at least there will be basically only two this time--anything can happen. There will be delegate challenges; there will be challenges to the Democratic primary rules (also known as the McGovern rules). . .and anything can happen.
In the meantime both Obama and Clinton have ejected their steadiest hands. . .
And the Jeremiah deal could prove to have really really really long legs. I hope not. Obama's speech tonight was masterful, and may work with La Raza. But it will only inflame the right wing talk show circuit, who may still have the muscle to keep the pot stirred. I don't know.
Carl Jeffers, who is a local, but national commentator, gave Obama the win. Michael Reagan (about 3% the man his father was...as opposed to Ronald Jr., about 150%) said Obama's speech only poured gasolline on the fire.
I think the difference is somewhere in the middle. I admire Obama or not tossing his Rev. under the bus. But I might have admired him more if he had. But even if he had, that doesn't change twenty years of listening to the pastor.
A lot of what Obama said today was very very moving (his remarks about his white grandmother made me tear up a bit). But a good chunk of it was politically expedient. He scored points with me. _____________________
And then, there's the next issue...the idea of a joint ticket. My feeling is Obama has no choice. If they were smart, they'd decide it themselves right now and go united to the convention and begin the attack on Senator "Queeg" McCain.
But they won't. I love the man, Scooter, and I don't love, but respect the woman. If they stiop the bullshit now, we may just have a crack at it. Or do we just wait for the fractious convention, and then have one of them nominate a VP from Ohio or "The coast?"
I no longer want to watch this show. It's not often I have ever felt political fatigue...ever. But this could go on three more long months. It's about time to stop. Now if we can just reign in two ginormous but good-hearted egos, we just might make a run for it. We're running against a guy who is at this moment as good as he will ever get. He's spooked. He knows what's coming. It is us. I only hope we can get our act together and come at him with everything we've got.
I agree word for word, with one slight quibble, I don't think he would have gained any political points with anyone had he "disowned" Wright. The right would have called him a coward for it without letting up on their demonization and the gesture would have so altered the speech that it would have been reduced simply to an act of expediency. And I wholeheartedly agree that while it was a move to damage control it was far more than that, it was "masterful".
Ah, one more quibble. As for the convention fight. I don't think you're giving his crew credit for their organizational prowess. They didn't just pick up delegates in Iowa they picked her pocket.
"It is precisely this kind of political point-scoring that has opened up the security gap in this country. We have a security gap when candidates say they will follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell, but refuse to follow him where he actually goes. What we need in our next Commander in Chief is not a stubborn refusal to acknowledge reality or empty rhetoric about 3AM phone calls. What we need is a pragmatic strategy that focuses on fighting our real enemies, rebuilding alliances, and renewing our engagement with the world’s people."
It doesn't look like he's goint to let up, Jack, and for my money, while they may be in a horse race for the nomination, he is showing that he is far superior to either Hillary or Queeg for the actual job.
This seems narrower than most tallies I've seen, Jack. Does it include the 9 Iowa delegates that migrated to Obama from Clinton and Edwards over the weekend? Is that a HRC Caucus bashing backlash that we can expect to see more of? In any event, your figures include Supers which have moved for Obama pretty steadily over the last month. With MI & FLA re-do(s) all but DOA it's impossible to see how she wins this thing unless the Jeremiah deal proves to have really long legs.
ReplyDeleteI'd bet that at the end of the primary season, Obama will have a lead of 150+ pledged delegates and as Pelosi says, that will have been all she wrote.
It is a narrow tally, but I believe the race is that narrow (and you're right, he did pick up votes this weekend not reflected here).
ReplyDeleteYeah Mich. and FLA look to be no-ops.
I agree she can't win this thing, in the primaries (and especially not in the caucuses as you often point out). But he can't win it either--a point Obama supporters rarely mention.
I'm telling you, 'though, I watched the '72 convention almost gavel to gavel, fueled by French Road and The Green Monster. . .and you have no idea what these political operatives can do when they are in the trenches. When the pollsters are working the crowd, and the various factions--at least there will be basically only two this time--anything can happen. There will be delegate challenges; there will be challenges to the Democratic primary rules (also known as the McGovern rules). . .and anything can happen.
In the meantime both Obama and Clinton have ejected their steadiest hands. . .
And the Jeremiah deal could prove to have really really really long legs. I hope not. Obama's speech tonight was masterful, and may work with La Raza. But it will only inflame the right wing talk show circuit, who may still have the muscle to keep the pot stirred. I don't know.
Carl Jeffers, who is a local, but national commentator, gave Obama the win. Michael Reagan (about 3% the man his father was...as opposed to Ronald Jr., about 150%) said Obama's speech only poured gasolline on the fire.
I think the difference is somewhere in the middle. I admire Obama or not tossing his Rev. under the bus. But I might have admired him more if he had. But even if he had, that doesn't change twenty years of listening to the pastor.
A lot of what Obama said today was very very moving (his remarks about his white grandmother made me tear up a bit). But a good chunk of it was politically expedient. He scored points with me.
_____________________
And then, there's the next issue...the idea of a joint ticket. My feeling is Obama has no choice. If they were smart, they'd decide it themselves right now and go united to the convention and begin the attack on Senator "Queeg" McCain.
But they won't. I love the man, Scooter, and I don't love, but respect the woman. If they stiop the bullshit now, we may just have a crack at it. Or do we just wait for the fractious convention, and then have one of them nominate a VP from Ohio or "The coast?"
I no longer want to watch this show. It's not often I have ever felt political fatigue...ever. But this could go on three more long months. It's about time to stop. Now if we can just reign in two ginormous but good-hearted egos, we just might make a run for it. We're running against a guy who is at this moment as good as he will ever get. He's spooked. He knows what's coming. It is us. I only hope we can get our act together and come at him with everything we've got.
jack
I agree word for word, with one slight quibble, I don't think he would have gained any political points with anyone had he "disowned" Wright. The right would have called him a coward for it without letting up on their demonization and the gesture would have so altered the speech that it would have been reduced simply to an act of expediency. And I wholeheartedly agree that while it was a move to damage control it was far more than that, it was "masterful".
ReplyDeleteAh, one more quibble.
As for the convention fight. I don't think you're giving his crew credit for their organizational prowess. They didn't just pick up delegates in Iowa they picked her pocket.
"It is precisely this kind of political point-scoring that has opened up the security gap in this country. We have a security gap when candidates say they will follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell, but refuse to follow him where he actually goes. What we need in our next Commander in Chief is not a stubborn refusal to acknowledge reality or empty rhetoric about 3AM phone calls. What we need is a pragmatic strategy that focuses on fighting our real enemies, rebuilding alliances, and renewing our engagement with the world’s people."
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't look like he's goint to let up, Jack, and for my money, while they may be in a horse race for the nomination, he is showing that he is far superior to either Hillary or Queeg for the actual job.