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Here we are, looking forward to another round of Democratic primaries--in Kentucky, and in Oregon. And it will be another split: Oregon for Obama, and Kentucky for Portland.
It's no wonder we have that "not so fresh feeling." It's frustrating on both ends: that Obama can't close the deal in the last two weeks, and that Hillary, the energizer bunny, keeps on keeping on despite running on empty, the odds, and the excoriations and pleas of Dems and the pundits.
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Why can't Obama knock out Clinton? Despite her new tack on citing media bias I wonder what would have become of her campaign had she not been the beneficiary of the media’s pledged delegate math that showed her ahead until early March.
ReplyDeleteHad news outlets accurately projected the delegate tallies from the beginning it’s easy to imagine that that her campaign would have flamed out before TX, OH, RI & VT.
What the media reported, in needlessly complicated charts that tied totals to certifications, was that she led handily in pledged delegates.
It wasn't true and imagine if the media reported the pledged delegate totals based on actual contest margins which is how they were going to play out anyway and did.
End of January, Obama leads Clinton by 17 pledged delegates;
After Super Tuesday, Obama ducks Clinton's knockout blow and leads on points. He leads by 35plus pledged delegates;
After every contest in February, Obama continues to add to his pledged delegate lead.
A break in the rounds; After 10 consecutive victories Obama leads Clinton by more than 150 pledged delegates. She''s on the ropes!
That story would have killed her fundraising ergo her candidacy and it would have been an accurate account of the trajectory of this race.
But the media laid off and now she is floating a doozy that she is ahead in the popular vote and virtually no one in the media challenges her on it.
Well, it will be settled soon enough (no later than August) and unless she pulls off a miracle in Oregon or lightning strikes it won't be her. That said, I wonder what you think of the story that HRC and America's greatest affirmative action candidate, Gerry Ferraro, are ginning up the anti-sexist vote against Obama. It should have been a slam dunk against McCain and now the older gals are going to pull the lever for McCentury? Arggh.
BTW, isn't Rasputin the better analogue? Now she's arguing that she'a ahead according to Republican rules.
ReplyDeleteI mostly agree with your analyses of why Obama hasn't knocked Clinton out. But none of that changes the fact that he hasn't.
ReplyDeleteI also think it's pretty disinegnuous of the Obama camp to be claiming media bias--when they've mostly & largely been the beneficiary of any media bias.
Kev - I am just trying to be realistic here. We have also barely discussed the credentials issue. You are probably aware that Clinton forces completely control the credentials committee. Ask George McGovern, Scoop Jackson, Hube Humphrey, and other '72 luminaries what credential fights can do to a campaign...
I doubt if it will happen...but it is still a remote possiblity.
Jackie, the Obama camp isn't claiming media bias the Clinton camp is and my question is -- based on what? Was it the way they roughed her up 24/7 with Rev Wright, or the Ayers/Unrepentant Domestic Terroritst connection, or the manner they tracked pledged delegates which screwed her, or that she was the inevitable candidate? Or how they hounded her on why why she didn't read the NIE?
ReplyDeleteFact is, the media have not challenged her assertions that she's ahead on the popular vote nor her complete reversal on MI & FLA. But SNL asks if Obama wants a pillow oin a skit and that's proof that the media's soft on him. Has anybody asked why Hillary doesn't wear a flag pin fer chrissakes?
She hasn't had it so rough from the media. She does have a strong hand inside the credentials committee but if they're not all Lanny Davis clones it may not be as strong as she'd like. FLA & MI do little for her now and they become less compelling as the longer this goes.
I'm not saying she won't go there but if she loses that gambit she better hope someone puts out a welcome mat in Arkansas because it'll be pretty cold elsewhere.
Yeah--you're mostly right. And as for the flag pin in the lapel...well, they don't harrass her about it, because she has no Jeremiah Wright and her middle name is not Hussein.
ReplyDeleteI don't think--nor do you I suspect--that she will take up a credentials fight. But the longer this lingers, you do have to wonder. BHO is not so far ahead that a savvy, aggressive credentials fight might knock out the pins underneath him.
And as for Bill. . .yikes! The longer this goes on the further his formerly Olympian stature sinks and collapses. What's his next act? More million dollar speeches, another book, or maybe just hanging with his best friend George H.W. Bush and doing charity work? What's her next act?
Optimistically, I think she will drop out of the race tomorrow night or Wednesday morning. Earlier I figurted she'd also resign from the Senate too. But I think she just might finish out her term. I won't be shocked if she files for a divorce sometime after the general election.
I also wonder--since he was in Seattle this week--whether you aren't considering jumping back on The Nader Bandwagon???