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By Pablo Fanque
All This Is That National Affairs Editor
Some of my friends say I am too pessimistic about the Democrat chances of regaining the White House. I think I've been realistic. Senator Obama agreed and warned supporters that the election is not over yet!:
“Don’t underestimate our ability to screw it up,” said Barack Obama just last week.1) The polls now show Barack Obama solidly in the lead, ranging from 14 points to 2 or 3, with a sweet spot somewhere in the middle, about 7 points in Obama's favor.
But: we have to remember that Hubert Horatio Humphrey was also well ahead weeks before the election. Harry Truman was at least 7 points behind Dewey until that election night surprise.
2) Obama is already speculating about his cabinet. including names like John Kerry, Chuck Hagel, a republican who may become the next defense secretary. Surely his foreign policy advisor Susan Rice will have a slot somewhere in the administration. Former NATO general Jim Jones may be on the list, and Republican Richard Lugar as well.
But: Obama has to tread a fine line here. How many Senators does he, or do we, really want in the cabinet? John Kerry, while loyal and capable, surely doesn't play well to the theme of change. And change will be important coming out of the gate January 21st. Obama will undoubtedly name at least a couple of Republicans to top posts.
George W. Bush brought in a handful of old veterans to his administration, and it did not work out well. Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Colin Powell were the "experienced" ones who would help the green President Bush.
3) Colin Powell finally came out today and said in public what many people already knew. He is endorsing Obama. He will no doubt remain a top advisor to Obama, but will probably not take a post in the administration. Iraq is still too much in the forefront, and his role in that is still in everyone's memory. This morning's endorsement by Powell, who was often mentioned as a possible VP candidate for McCain, feels like one of the last nails on the coffin, whether he is part of the Obama administration or not (and in any case he will be an important advisor, as he has been in the campaign).
But: There is Joe the Plumber Wurzelbacher out there making a lot of noise and being trumpeted by Sarah Palin. Actually, I think we all know Joe the Plumber is just a blip on the screen of the rapidly eroding, sometimes deranged "base."
4) Obama is on the offensive now, storming into, and doing well in, longstanding Republican strongholds like Virginia and scaring the beejesus out of the G.O.P.
But: he may not pick up many traditional stronghold states like Florida and Ohio. Fortunately, he may not need them because he's strong in the blue states and making inroads into several red states. The possibility still remains that this election will be an electoral college pile-on.
5) The economy looms over nearly every decision and every action in these last few weeks. Obama has a strong flank of economic advisors, including people like Warren Buffet and Paul Volcker. He has proffered a coherent economic plan and seriously knocked Senator McCain off whatever game he still had left.
But: Paul Volcker is 81, and Buffet is not a young man either. Buffet also owns chunks of several financial institutions now. It doesn't seem likely wither of them will be in an Obama cabinet. . .but there are plenty of highly qualified people waiting in the wings.
Obama will clearly come out of the gate strong on the economy. I think we know where he will get his advice. It's not so clear who the front men and women will be. McCain is making no headway on the economy, and has, in fact, lost support following the recent economic meltdown.
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It's too early to celebrate or be cocky. Democrats need to stay focused the next 15 days. Obama has a strong game going into the last two weeks. The Promised Land lies just around the next corner.
It's now up to the voters to actually get to the polls, mail in their ballots, harangue their neighbors, send money to the campaign, and then get ready to celebrate for the first time since 1996.
The celebration may become even sweeter before it's all over. Just last week, an editorial in The Wall Street Journal last week warned of the distinct possibility of a “liberal super-majority” in the Senate (e.g., 60%). The Dems could end up with a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, basically ensuring they can pass whatever they want, and get at least two left of center candidates onto the Supreme Court.
There is one (former) Democrat who may end up out in the cold after the election: the dwarf from Connecticut, Senator "Crazy" Joe Lieberman. If the 60 person supermajority does not need to include his votes, Joe Lieberman may well find himself handing out towels in the Senate Cloakroom.
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Ach. I can't believe i live in Liebermann country now. But I must admit, I was caught by surprise (at the gym watching the scroll-by and CC on the TV) to see Colin Powell's announcement. It was my first (ever) moment of political optimism. I wear my Knitters for Obama button proudly around here... and here it is quite split (did i mention Liebermann is one of my neighbors ??)
ReplyDeleteJack, I agree, a quiet dogged determination is required on the ground these last two weeks but it's important to note that Obama is a different candidate than DEMS have put forward in recent years. He is tough, at least as tough as Clinton, and he is far more charismatic than any of the other candidates in your foto array.
ReplyDeleteObama's extensive organization is breathtaking in its reach and nimbleness and it is bearing down on McGimp in FLA, NC, VA, CO, NV, IN, and even WV which is playing like endgame. It's no small thing what McHamm must accomplish. Oh, it's possible for a wild eyed gambit to change the trajectory but in order to stave off defeat McGawk also needs a significant mistake from Obama which is unlikely given the discipline of the O team. Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe & Gibbs make very few mistakes. They choose their spots and don't feel the need to challenge every naggling point unlike McFlailin.
The fundraising tsunami allows Obama to batter McCaint everywhere. His team is far more sophisticated than McFax's and they aren't letting up. If Obama wins, and I think he will, the media will take up the "improbable" story line anew reprising his victory over the Clintons which will be a stirring narrative through the transistion period. This guy stands to make for a great PREZ. I know you are hopeful even in your caution. Here's to hope. Just 2 weeks to go.
Lieberman country is a little strange. Almost my only experience with Connecticut is just passing through.
ReplyDeleteHow is PA school? Is it PA school? How's life in general? I bet you set to see Sarv lots, which would be awesome. Now we get to see him less!
Kev - I agree Obama and team have been on their game far better than the dems of the past.
ReplyDeleteIt tells you, though, how closely split this country is that Obama has to work so hard, be so careful, and spend so many buckets of money just to get 6 or 7 points ahead.
I am hopeful, but just a little nervous. I expect great things of the American people when they get inside the booth.
But then to understand my edginess about this, you have to remember where and how I grew up. I think I've mentioned before that when I was growing up the only place I heard words like "black" or "negro" were on TV...
And what the F*** was Biden talking about when he said they would face an epic international disaster in 6 months? I hope he didn't get it from the daily security briefings! Speaking of which, it must be interesting walking Governor Palin through hers!
Two weeks and three hours to go!