By Pablo Fanque,
All This Is That National Affairs Editor
on hiatus in Bucerias, Nayarit, Mexico
Paintings/sign by Jack Brummet
This could get very interesting. It already is. Both Obama and The Clintons each have three negotiators haggling over the Secretary of State cabinet position. How many other top slots in the history of America have ever involved six negotiators? I can tell you authoritatively. None. Ever.
Is this a harbinger of factionalism in the nascent Obama Administration? Bill Clinton has said he would do "whatever it takes" to open the way for Hillary to get the State Department nod. Whatever it takes includes forgoing many lucrative (to the tune of millions a year) speeches, disclosing major donors to the William J. Clinton Foundation, naming and forgoing many consulting clients, and in general, clearing most of his activities with the Administration. That is a heavy load for a guy that has done it his way for the last 16 years or so. It is interesting enough that he is being let out of the doghouse after his angry and often race-baiting performances on Hillary's road to the White House.
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Future President Barack Obama is on track to nominate The Senator as secretary of state after Thanksgiving an aide to his transition disclosed Thursday.
It is utterly fascinating the way this has played out in the press, with leaks, and positioning on both sides. No Drama Obama is wrapped up in this fascinating minuet under the full glare of the press [1] and bloggers. She is a fascinating choice for SoS.
Once again, Obama has buried whatever malignant feelings he might have ever held toward her. He is an amazing pragmatist and practicioner of the forgive and forget school of politics.
Sure, many people believe he wants her on the inside, because as President Lyndon Johnson often said, "it's better to have them inside the tent pissing out than outside pissing in." While many Democrats and beltway insiders openly question whether Clinton is too independent and ambitious to be the effective Secretary of State we desperately need, it is clear that Obama values her intelligence, diligence, experience, and yes, even chutzpah and moxie.
Large numbers of other Democrats believe in her too. Recent polls indicate that Hillary Clinton would have beaten John McCain by greater margins than Obama. Of course, that doesn't take into account the fact that her political organization collapsed in the face of Obama's clearly superior one. Would they have been able to put aside their infighting long enough to beat McCain? We will never know.
Clinton's nomination appears to be nearly a fait accompli. It will be fascinating to see whether she can live with the high degree of discipline Obama requires from his underlings. And that also applies to the 300 pound gorilla, Bill Clinton, who will need to spend a lot of the next few years sitting on his hands.
[1] Maybe not the full glare, with all the layoffs and downsizing of news organizations, including the latest one today: AP is cutting 10% of its workforce. Nearly every other major news organization has recently announced broad and deep cuts. "I guess this internet thing may actually really take off, after all."
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Great report, Pablo and Jack. I would add that the hypothetical Clinton margin of victory can't in any way account for how she would have played against a McCain ticket with a far more conventional VP pick. McStuffing surely wouldn't have selected the Wasilla gobbler in a run against Hillary Clinton. Joe L may have cost her FLA. It's hard to imagine that she would have had the ground game Obama put in place there. And, the only scenario that would have allowed her to win the nomination wouldn't have been good for AA and youth turnout.
ReplyDeleteThe GE campaign would have been far more conventional and while Hillary surely would have won, it's hard to imagine that she would have played better in VA & NC than O did. She could have stretched the PV margins while earning less EV's. Who knows if she would have won IN.
I wonder if Obama isn't using the Clinton noise to divert attention from his strategic positioning as he preps to hit the ground running on "Day One". Yes, he is a pragmatist of the highest order and for all the media glare surrounding her SOS appt it appears that she either comes with him or she is sentenced to a prosaic stretch in the Senate. Teddy sent a pretty strong signal on the HealthCare front.
Despite all the crowing about how Obama couldn't close he owned the Clintons during the primaries and through his masterfully orchestrated management of the convention, even Bill knows it now.
I agree on the potential Clinton margins...
ReplyDeleteAnd Bill does know it too. He many not like it, but he bows down to the superior tactician...