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By Pablo Fanque
All This Is That National Affairs Editor
Some of my friends say I am too pessimistic about the Democrat chances of regaining the White House. I think I've been realistic. Senator Obama agreed and warned supporters that the election is not over yet!:
“Don’t underestimate our ability to screw it up,” said Barack Obama just last week.1) The polls now show Barack Obama solidly in the lead, ranging from 14 points to 2 or 3, with a sweet spot somewhere in the middle, about 7 points in Obama's favor.
But: we have to remember that Hubert Horatio Humphrey was also well ahead weeks before the election. Harry Truman was at least 7 points behind Dewey until that election night surprise.
2) Obama is already speculating about his cabinet. including names like John Kerry, Chuck Hagel, a republican who may become the next defense secretary. Surely his foreign policy advisor Susan Rice will have a slot somewhere in the administration. Former NATO general Jim Jones may be on the list, and Republican Richard Lugar as well.
But: Obama has to tread a fine line here. How many Senators does he, or do we, really want in the cabinet? John Kerry, while loyal and capable, surely doesn't play well to the theme of change. And change will be important coming out of the gate January 21st. Obama will undoubtedly name at least a couple of Republicans to top posts.
George W. Bush brought in a handful of old veterans to his administration, and it did not work out well. Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Colin Powell were the "experienced" ones who would help the green President Bush.
3) Colin Powell finally came out today and said in public what many people already knew. He is endorsing Obama. He will no doubt remain a top advisor to Obama, but will probably not take a post in the administration. Iraq is still too much in the forefront, and his role in that is still in everyone's memory. This morning's endorsement by Powell, who was often mentioned as a possible VP candidate for McCain, feels like one of the last nails on the coffin, whether he is part of the Obama administration or not (and in any case he will be an important advisor, as he has been in the campaign).
But: There is Joe the Plumber Wurzelbacher out there making a lot of noise and being trumpeted by Sarah Palin. Actually, I think we all know Joe the Plumber is just a blip on the screen of the rapidly eroding, sometimes deranged "base."
4) Obama is on the offensive now, storming into, and doing well in, longstanding Republican strongholds like Virginia and scaring the beejesus out of the G.O.P.
But: he may not pick up many traditional stronghold states like Florida and Ohio. Fortunately, he may not need them because he's strong in the blue states and making inroads into several red states. The possibility still remains that this election will be an electoral college pile-on.
5) The economy looms over nearly every decision and every action in these last few weeks. Obama has a strong flank of economic advisors, including people like Warren Buffet and Paul Volcker. He has proffered a coherent economic plan and seriously knocked Senator McCain off whatever game he still had left.
But: Paul Volcker is 81, and Buffet is not a young man either. Buffet also owns chunks of several financial institutions now. It doesn't seem likely wither of them will be in an Obama cabinet. . .but there are plenty of highly qualified people waiting in the wings.
Obama will clearly come out of the gate strong on the economy. I think we know where he will get his advice. It's not so clear who the front men and women will be. McCain is making no headway on the economy, and has, in fact, lost support following the recent economic meltdown.
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It's too early to celebrate or be cocky. Democrats need to stay focused the next 15 days. Obama has a strong game going into the last two weeks. The Promised Land lies just around the next corner.
It's now up to the voters to actually get to the polls, mail in their ballots, harangue their neighbors, send money to the campaign, and then get ready to celebrate for the first time since 1996.
The celebration may become even sweeter before it's all over. Just last week, an editorial in The Wall Street Journal last week warned of the distinct possibility of a “liberal super-majority” in the Senate (e.g., 60%). The Dems could end up with a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, basically ensuring they can pass whatever they want, and get at least two left of center candidates onto the Supreme Court.
There is one (former) Democrat who may end up out in the cold after the election: the dwarf from Connecticut, Senator "Crazy" Joe Lieberman. If the 60 person supermajority does not need to include his votes, Joe Lieberman may well find himself handing out towels in the Senate Cloakroom.
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